The Ridiculously Early, Totally Useless and Unpredictable 09-10 Predictions: Part 2!

The East:

1. Boston - Still the best team in the East - for now. The B's benefit from a very mediocre division, but the situation around Kessel and his 36 goals he brings will determine what kind of team this is next year. 

2. Washington - Nice pickup of Knuble, but the question is around their goaltending. Varlamov looked solid at times, and shaky at others, but their awesome talent up front and development on the blueline will keep this team elite.

3. Pittsburgh - Losing Gill and Scuderi will hurt (alright, maybe not Gill), but McKee was a good pickup, and their young team keeps getting better. Their tough division will keep them out of the top 2 spots. 

4. Philadelphia - They may have sold the future to get him, but Pronger is a great fit for the reincarnation of the Broad Street Bullies. Perhaps Ryan Kesler should sit out this game. If this team can avoid getting too undisciplined, they'll challenge the Pens for the division.

5. Carolina Hurricanes - About the same as last year.

6. New York Rangers - About the same as last year, plus Gaborik. If he stays healthy, he could top 100 points.

7. New Jersey - Lemaire and New Jersey are such a great fit. Finally, the league re-condenses its most boring pieces back into one organization. Zack Parise must be thrilled about the possibility of a 70 point season. 

8. Montreal - I didn't give the Canadiens' FA signings very favorable reviews, but they still have a quality second line in the Kostitsyn brothers, Markov on the back end, and I'm convinced that Carey Price will limit himself to one cigarette at a time and have a bounce-back year. If this team finds some chemistry amid their fantasy-draft style team, they could be a solid playoff team.

9. Atlanta - I'm going big on this one. The Thrashers actually have a very solid top 4 defensemen in Bogosian, Enstrom, Kubina and Hainsey, and have some scorers in Little, Kozlov, Todd White (owner of the quietest 73 point season ever) and of course, Kovalchuk. If they get some solid goaltending out of Lehtonen or top prospect Pavelec, this team could contend for a playoff spot.

10. Buffalo - This team has talent, but refuses to make the next steps to become a contender. They've finished 10th the last two years. Make it 3.

11. Toronto - Terry Frei thinks Toronto is a playoff team. In other news, Terry Frei should not be writing for ESPN. How many goals is Jason Blake expected to score? According to this thread, quite a bit. Quite a good read; I smell some challenges for Frei's job. Oh, and don't forget about losing Antropov up front, along with one of their five assistant captains in Dominic Moore. In all seriousness, I believe it was Ken Holland who once said that if you're going to spend a lot of money on free agent defensemen, you better be sure they can score. Beauchemin (in 07-08, his last full year) and Komisarek (08-09) combined for 4 goals. But hey, what does this Holland character know anyways?

12. Florida - This team chose a unique strategy and used an interim, part-time GM for one of the most crucial periods in their short (not short enough, for many) history. They lost their franchise cornerstone in Bouwmeester, and replaced him with a rent-a-player and a 3rd round pick. This team has a good young coach and a few pieces of talent, but time would be better spent drawing up relocation plans than drawing 10,000 people per game. Hint: when trying to market the team, perhaps picking one of the most hated men involved in professional football (a sport a few seem to care about down there) was not a wise choice.

13. Ottawa - This team might get better depending on how the Heatley situation unfolds, but while "Mad" Mike Milbury earned his nickname and takes the cake for the worst asset-management in recent NHL history, Bryan Murray is a close second.. What other team has been in such turmoil just 2 years (!) after making it to the Cup Final? He chose Redden over Chara, then let Redden walk for nothing, traded away a 1st round pick in a rebuilding year for Comrie, a UFA, just committed $8 million over the next 4 years for a 10 point thug, and can't even trade a 2-time 50 goal scorer and Canadian Olympic lock Dany Heatley. This team recovered from the Daigle era to become a respectable team, and Murray has let it fall back into a joke of an organization. 

14. Tampa Bay - Unfortunately, they probably won't lose their top 5 pick to the Canucks for tampering, but a top 5 pick it will be. This team is building pieces, but expect a playoff team come 2010-11.

15. New York Islanders - Slow and steady. Kansas City will have a great looking team in a couple years.

The Ridiculously Early, Totally Useless and Unpredictable 09-10 Predictions

Here at the HCP we like to get a jump on our competition, the so-called "legitimate" sports websites. Therefore, at risk of falling behind, I'm unveiling my predictions for the 09-10 year, in order of conference finish a mere 14 weeks before the start of the year. To account for perhaps jumping the gun a little early, I'll also go through each teams to-do lists. Ill post again during training camp, after teams have actually assembled their complete rosters.

Today: The West

1. San Jose Sharks - With the retention of all their core players and ridding their team of one of its most notorious douchebags, unless the Sharks still plan on a big roster shakeup, this team is set to regain Joe Thornton's prize of choice, the Presidents Trophy.

To Do: It looks like Shark's GM Doug Wilson is pretty content with his roster as it stands, and will give it one more shot at making the third round before blowing it up. Needs to add some depth after the departure of Goc, Plihal, and others.

2. Detroit Red Wings - No, it's not Chicago time yet. Even with the loss of a lot of key depth players, the Wings have enough prospects and good management that they'll survive, even with a stronger division.

To Do: Recruit their army of Swedish scouts to find some third-line guys that will put no doubt put up 60-70 points.

3. Vancity Canucks - Call me a homer, but this team has the same makeup as the team that won the division last year after losing Luongo for 2 months. If Cody Hodgson is half of the godsend we all expect him to be, this could be a team to beat. If anyone wants to help me work on my statue of Gillis, please apply below.

To Do: Add a puck moving defenseman, sign Luongo and Kesler to extensions.

4. Anaheim Ducks - I've been totally blown away with their new GM Bob Murray. He has shed salary and turned a semi-rebuild (trading key pieces from his Cup run like Pronger and Kunitz) and somehow made his team stronger. After standing 4 minutes away from the Conference Finals last year, they now have Perry-Getzlaf-Ryan and Selanne-Koivu-Lupul, to go along with Neidermayer, Whitney, and Wisniewski on the back end (not to mention Hiller and Giguere in net). This is a very dangerous team.

To-Do: One more defenseman.

5. Calgary Flames - Even though everyone's sold on the Flames as Cup contenders (just like analysts handed them the Cup last year after adding Leopold and Jokinen at the deadline), I'm not convinced. As I laid out in an earlier post, Sutter has too much money tied up in too many players. Curtis "One Win" McElhinny will again give way to Kiprusoff 75+ times during the season, which has ended in first round exits 4 years in a row. And after losing 39 goals in Cammalleri, who's going to make up for all those goals? Iginla? Olli "Leukemia" Jokinen?

To-Do: Free up some room (Sarich?) and get another top-6 forward

6. Chicago Blackhawks - Like Calgary, I'm not sold on the Hawks, mainly because 1) they're already 2 million over the cap, without a full roster, and 2) they're relying on an unmovable contract named Huet in net. Don't forget this team lost their starting goalie to free-agency, and are replacing him with a goalie who was inconsistent. This team is wicked up front and on the back end, but something has got to give, especially with Toews, Kane, Keith, and Ladd up for new contracts next year. That means valuable secondary guys like Barker and Sharp are out the door. And did I mention they have Huet in net? Sorry Hossa, these Hawks aren't Cup contenders yet.

To-Do: Get under the cap without losing key pieces.

7. Dallas Stars - They were too injured, were too inconsistant, and started playing well too late. Expect a bounceback year by Turco, and along with a healthy Richards and Morrow, this team should be back in the playoffs.

To-Do: Another puck-moving d-man to replace Zubov's production, and fire last year's team doctor.

8. Columbus Blue Jackets - I really struggled between my 8 and 9 picks, and I think it'll come down to the wire. Steve Mason won't have the same type of year he had last year, but under Hitchcock he'll still put up great stats. Nash has found his home, and the team around him with Vermette, Huselius..and...Hitchcock as a coach, they'll make it back into the playoffs.

To Do: Defensemen? Maybe? I don't really care enough about many of these lower teams.

9. I hate putting St. Louis out, especially with Erik Johnson coming back this year, but I realized that after watching a series featuring the Blues, I am still unable to name most of their players. Kariya is fading fast, and Chris Mason doesn't strike fear into the heart of even the puck-shooting machine. They'll be close, but take a step back.

10. Edmonton Oilers - These next three teams were pretty tough to rank. The Oilers get the nod with their ability to move the puck on the back end, good coaching, and bounce-back years from Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano. Provided he's on the team. What happens if they trade for Heatley?

11. Minnesota Wild - They could come back and prove me wrong by finishing in the 10 spot, but for all its promise and seemingly smart managerial hirings, this team is worse than last year. Maybe new GM Chuck Fletcher overestimated the amount of free agents who would love living in Fargo-like conditions, but outside of getting an injury-prone, inconsistent sniper to replace an injury prone, consistent sniper, I don't see much. They lost Lemaire's boring, Center-Ice-package-canceling system that hid their - how can I put this lightly - lack of talent. Another year out of the playoffs, another 10th-14th draft pick. Beautiful.

12. Nashville Predators - Outside of a truly sick (I believe that's the word the kids are using these days) defensive core, and Pekka Rinne) this team doesn't have much offense. I would put them lower, but Trotz and company always seem to do better then expected. So I'm going to expect them to do better.

13. Los Angeles - This team is so unpredictable. Is this the year everything comes together and they make a playoff run? Getting Ryan Smyth says they're trying. I'll give them one more year on account of poor goaltending and too much youth, but I might be very wrong.

14. Phoenix Coyotes - How does a team that doesn't have an owner sign off on free agents? Coyotes management has no idea either, and so they left this team to rely on its youth and save the team money. Vodka, anyone?

15. Colorado Avalanche - How sweet it is to have this team at the bottom of conference. They'll be here for another year after this as well. Hopefully next year's draft class is weak.

What I learned during this article: I don't know shit when it comes to spelling players names. I apologize to any current NHL players reading this blog whose names I misspelled.

Reason Number 382 I hate basketball: This song

I'm not sure what's worse, attempting to rhyme "grinding" with "lounging," or the verse where every rhyme is either "dude" or "too" (too is pronounced in a Proposition-Joe-from-the-Wire-esque Baltimore accent).

Record breaking day!

The sun is shining, the Sedins are locked up, and it was a great day for the HCP (and, I can only imagine, several others). We set a new record for posts in a day (6!), smashing the old record of 1. We'll quickly run through a couple of the bigger deals. More tomorrow.

Marian Gaborik: (5 year, $37.5 million to the NYR)

Winner: Gaborik's groin. It's like the kid who made three errors and struck out six times who still gets a slurpee after a team victory. Gaborik's better parts really made up for his groin, and got rewarded with a whopping $37.5 million. The groin gets to come along for the ride, and judging by other multimillionaire hockey players in New York City, it will undoubtably do quite well for itself.

Loser 1: Glen Sather, James Dolan. Hey look, it's my winners from the Gomez trade! With all the promise of smart management they showed by unloading Gomez, they somehow repainted themselves back into a corner (I'm not sure this is possible in actual painting) by signing the injury-prone (to put it mildly) Slovakian to a long term deal. If he can stay healthy, these couple of maneuvers could be very clever. Most likely, however, Gaborik will wind up hurt, and New York may have to play a portion of the year with 15 players.

Loser 2: The Half Court Press. I had a great writeup lined up of how, after Gaborik signed in Vancouver, the Canucks were hot and the Wild were something else (hint: not). Instead, I had to patch together some pretty lame joke about his groin. Thanks for nothing Gaborik.

Canadiens sign Gionta (5 years, $25 million) and Cammalleri (5 years, $30 million), Gill (2 years, $4.5 million) and Spacek (3 years, $11.5 million)

Winners: The Advocacy Groups for the Awkwardly Tall and the Humorously Short. A real inspirational story. By signing the 5'7 Gionta, the 5'9 Cammellari, and the 6'6 Gill, the Canadiens not only provided hope to anyone who's ever been passed over because of size, but also assured themselves of one of the most hilarious looking starting lineups ever.

Losers: The store vendors of Montreal. With all due respect to the hockey mind of Bob Gainey, it appears he chose his free agents with some sort of dartboard/other contraption. Choosing not to stick with a single one of his bigger name UFA's last year is a serious mistake (Komesarik especially, even at that price) and his team is now a virtual unknown. There is something to be said for team chemistry and player development. Detroit knows it, and many (including Gillis) are now drinking the same Kool-Aid. Fans in Montreal don't react well to losing (or winning, apparently) and after another early exit next year, the commercial districts of Ste. Catherine's street had better be well stocked with steel girders. Marshmallows, anyone?

Blurgh

I've been a little bit out of the world of sports since the NBA Finals ended (partly because there haven't been any sports on tv [unless you count baseball {which I don't}]). But mainly because both the NHL and the NBA Playoffs left me feeling empty and cold inside. 

In hockey, I was forced to witness: Marty Brodeur looking all-too human against Eric Staal and the Hurricanes; my beloved Canucks collapsing against a young and only-getting-better Chicago team; Ovechkin and the rest of his dope-ass teammates getting edged by their arch-rivals, the RuPaul and Elton John of the NHL; and finally I had to (not watch because I stopped doing that after the Nucks lost, but hear) that Cindy Crosby got to take home Lord Stanley. 

In the NBA, even though the Lakers won the Larry O'Brien trophy, the playoffs followed roughly the same story arc as the movie The Hangover. Meaning, the good stuff all happened way too early and the laughs dried up towards the end (interchange laughs with suspense if you want to go back to talking about basketball). Early on things were interesting... the Cavs were absolutely rolling, the Celts and the Bulls were having one of the top-3 first-round series of all time and the Lakers were looking dominant during stretches but were plagued with the inconsistent focus they had failed to deal with all season long. 

Things climaxed when the Lakers managed to squeak their way past the Yao-less Rockets and began to play their best basketball of the season against the suddenly hot as a flippin' curry Denver Nuggets; the Magic overcame the defending champs behind a truly super(hu)man effort from Dwight Howard and we saw LeBron doing the impossible to keep his team in tight with the Magic.

Then there were the Finals, when it seemed like the only time things were close was when the Lakers took long stretches of play off to try to give the Magic a fighting chance (it didn't help). Kobe and Phil got their rings but it doesn't even feel legitimate with a final as anti-climactic as Seinfeld's. Hopefully next year we'll have the 7 game showdown between the Cavs and the Lakers that we had been expecting since this pre-season (Just so you know, my call is Kobe swishes a left-handed fade-away three over a triple team in double OT to win it).

So, I ignored sports for a few weeks, but the draft and some trades have forced me to pay attention again.

The Draft

When I say the draft "forced me to pay attention" I don't mean that this particular draft actually attracted my attention in any way whatsoever. The only exciting thing about it was that it is "the Draft" and is probably, almost undoubtedly, the least interesting draft to ever happen since I started following basketball.

Let me summarize: The only player in this class who is supposed to be a surefire success is plucked by the least likeable franchise in all of sports, a franchise that already has Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman and Zach Randolph to clog up the paint... a franchise that is owned and run (respectively) by these two clowns. As if that wasn't enough, the Grizzlies then decide to follow up by going for a player who's only positive attribute is his height - 7'3". Sure, that is a hell of a lot of attribute, but the guy can't play basketball. He gets blocks but anybody his size with the ability to raise his arms above his head would be able to do the same. This guy is destined to be remembered as the ebony to Bryant Reeve's ivory - anorexic black dude vs. ginormous whale of a white dude. Next, Oklahoma got James Harden, which was fine. But then the Kings fucked everything up. They picked Tyreke Evans over Ricky Rubio. A player I had never previously heard of over the one player I was honestly excited about in this draft class. And now, thanks to what I can only assume was some kind of decision passed down from the mentally handicapped Maloof brothers, Rubio might stay in Spain for a couple years. The Wolves picked him along with what I have to assume was half the other PG's in the draft and now nobody know what the fuck is going on. As a final "fuck you", Dejuan Blair who was statistically one of the top 2 or 3 players in college basketball players this year (and one of maybe 2 or 3 that Steve has heard of) fell to the Spurs.

All of the above made me want to cut my wrists, so I'll save trade discussion for later.

Chicago signs Marian Hossa: 12-year, $62.8 million contract

Winner: The 2009-2010 Chicago Blackhawks. If it can get some consistent goaltending from Huet or another FA signing, and its young players progress as expected, this team is a powerhouse and a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. Hossa, Kane, Toews, Bolland, Byfuglien, and Ladd up front? Not to mentioned Keith, Seabrook, and Campbell on the back end? Yikes.

Loser: The 2011-2012 Chicago Blackhawks. Whatever gains the Blackhawks are making now, they appear to be jeopardizing their promising future. One look at NHL Numbers tells the story. The 2011-12 team will have 10 players under contract at 25 million dollars, and need to resign Toews, Kane, Ladd, and Duncan Keith, all of whom are RFA's expecting $5-6 million plus on long term deals (Ladd will probably command a bit less.) If the cap rises, the Blackhawks will be fine, but if the cap levels off or drops, the Blackhawks may be faced with losing one or two of their talented young players to make room for a Slovakian under contract until he's 42.

Oh-lund oh-shit

Mattias Ohlund signs with the Tampa Bay Lightning (7 years, 3.75 million)

Winner: Ohlund. No need to be clever here. Ohlund’s career is in decline and all Canucks fans saw it in the Blackhawks series. To score a seven-year deal for about the same money he was making in the prime of his career? Tampa ownership has done it again.

Loser: Every other General Manager. Unfortunately, the marketplace is dictated by deals like this one and the Bouwmeester deal, and so even though economists are predicting doom and gloom for the cap over the next few years, the price of defensive help just went up.

Closing the deal on swedish twins = increased scoring

The Sedins have signed with the Canucks on a 5-year deal for $6.1 million apiece, leaving this guy extremely pumped.

Winner: Mike Gillis and his iron balls. Despite pressure from fans and media about the possibility of losing his two top scoring players, Gillis refused to budge from his offer of a 5 year deal, rumored to be worth about $5.6 million a year. When all looked lost, Gillis hopped on a plane to Sweden and told the Sedins what was up, offering a million bucks more (combined) then he originally offered. The Sedins are now practically signed on Gillis' terms, meaning that they fit into whatever plan this godsent genius has in store for Canucks fans.

Loser: JP Barry. Whatever tipped the balance and led the Sedins to sign this morning, it sure wasn't JP Barry, their agent. A couple weeks ago, it leaked that he was asking for identical 12-year, $63 million deals, which would keep the cap hit low, but keep the Sedins in blue and green until they were 40. When the Canucks refused to budge from a 5-year counteroffer, Barry seemed intent on letting the Sedins skip the hometown discount and find more money elsewhere. On an agent's salary, his original proposal would have netted him a cool $12-15 million in fees, but under Gillis' plan? About $6 million. No small potatoes, even for a couple of successful bloggers like ourselves, but being undermined by your clients and losing $6-9 million bucks on a deal can't be easy. Now, if he could just get Sundin to make up his mind..

Quick Update

A proposed trade that would have sent Heatley to the Oilers for Smid, Cogliano, and Penner has been shot down by Heatley himself, he of the no-trade clause.

Winners: The Northwest Division. With no disrespect to the Oilers trade bait, our division just dodged a 50-goal scoring bullet. And while players need thick skins to deal with the business of sports, it surely must create a little tension between management and the three players involved. Awkward...we totally still want you guys...

Losers: The Tourism Board of Edmonton. A storied history, respected coaching, some young talent, a passionate fan base and a 7.5 million dollar salary were not enough to sell Heatley on Edmonton. What chance do these poor folks have?