NFL: If a deal isn't struck by the end of the 2010 season, the 2011 season will restrict its free agency rules (which hurts the players) and will eliminate the salary cap (which will hurt the owners.) It was designed as an impetus to make a deal early, and still may do that, but if the 2011 season is played without a salary cap, it may seriously jeopardize the 2012 season. The Players Union would be very reluctant to go back to a cap system after a capless one, and there are many other thorny issues as well - including the debate over restricting rookie contracts and the future of non-guaranteed contracts- to work out.
Possibility of Strike: Moderate. There have been many issues within the league for years, but its constant growth and seemingly endless pockets have kept both sides happy. Now that there is less of a share, there may be problems. However, both sides understand what a lucrative business they are in, and neither wants to kill the proverbial golden-egg-laying goose.
MLB: The only sports league without a cap may be the league in most need of a lockout by the owners. While the league itself still somehow grows, the have-nots of the league are getting fed up with actions like the John Smoltz release this week. While the success last year of the Tampa Bay Rays may set a trend for prospect development, the fact is that the big market clubs still run the show. Players, meanwhile, aren't complaining. Recession? What recession?
Possibility of Strike: High. The recession has exacerbated the haves and the have-nots, and many owners will be ready to help their franchises future success by turning out the lights today.
NBA:
Possibility of Strike: I hope so. Sam will update this section because I really couldn't care less.
NHL: No hockey fan will forget the bitter 2004-05 season that wasn't. Hockey lost millions of fans and still is recovering from the season that was sacrificed in the name of a salary cap. This time around, the big issues include Olympic involvement, the future of long-term deals, and a possible league-wide pay cut (the players accepted a 24% pay cut out of the lockout) or cancellation of long term contracts already in place. But this isn't about redrafting a CBA; it's about perfecting the one in place.
Possibility of Strike: Slim. The league and the players know that they can't put the game through another lockout, especially now that the game finally seems to be on the rise. (They made the ESPN.com front page at least three or four times this year!) Their differences will be ironed out.
When do most strikes happen? During a boom when the pot is big and everyone wants their fair share, or during a recession where the pot is small and everyone is left fighting over dwindling resources? The NHL strike arose out of the latter situation, where the league lost $273 million in 2003 and owners felt a salary cap was the only way to curb high costs and ensure parity. The 1998-99 NBA strike, on the other hand, was experiencing its highest ratings and revenue ever thanks to Jordan (the 98 Finals generated a whopping 18.7 ratings share, compare that the highest ratings in 36 years that the NHL got during Game 7 this year: 4.3). So while economic climate is not a deciding factor in bargaining negotiation, it will be interesting to see how it affects it.
Time will tell, but there's a good chance one or more leagues may be on strike come 2012, and for good reason; owners and players will need all the money they can get to build mountain-high walls around their houses.
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