Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Prediction Season: East Edition!!

As for the East, in extremely played out, lame cliques/puns:

15. New York Islanders - Deserted Island. They're building a few good pieces, but there are so very many holes. This team needs another few years. Tavares prediction: 26 goals, 23 assists.

14. Florida Panthers - Cat-astrophe. Honestly, I didn't think Florida was a bottom 2 team in the East, but I had trouble finding teams to put them ahead of, and it just kind of happened. Like the Isles, they have a gem in Booth, but losing Bouwmeester and replacing him with Brodeur's water boy proves this team isn't committed to winning. Their temporary GM is still temporary three months later. That speaks loudly to the trouble this franchise is in.

13. Ottawa Senators - Sens-ationally disappointing. In my earlier predictions, I told you how I, well, disagreed with some of the moves Bryan Murray has made. The fact that Chris Kelly is making 2.125 million over the next 3 years alone should be enough to get canned. Getting fleeced on the Heatley deal hardly changes my mind. For a team whose moves aren't influenced by cheap owners or poor fan support, Murray remains the worst GM in hockey today.

12. Tampa Bay Lightning - Can Lighting Strike Twice? They bolstered their defense by adding eight or nine defensemen. Loading up on free agents worked so well last year, why not give Ohlund 7 years? The team, however, has some young talent and will be competitive in another year or two.

11. Atlanta Thrashers - Surprise Thrashing. Seriously, how do sports reporters in Atlanta do it? There are literally no clever puns with Atlanta's name, except to use it as an adjective. Oh right, they don't report on the Thrashers. In all seriousness, I wanted to put this team higher, but it got edged by a few other bubble teams. If rookie goaltender Pavelec, who's drawing a lot of buzz out of camp, can shine, this team might slip into the 8th spot. The Thrashers are deeper on defense and will make a push at the deadline to show Kovalchuk that this team is headed in the right direction. They'll be close this year, and they'll get a deal done.

10. Toronto Maple Leafs - The Leafs are Blowing. No, the Leafs are no longer the laughingstock of the league (laugh at Komisarek. He dares you.), but they'll still be out of the hunt again this year. The Leafs will be tougher to play against than last year, but not necessarily a whole lot better. Kessel doesn't have a legitimate set-up man, and unfortunately for Burke, hockey games are determined by goals, not Gordie Howe hat tricks.

9. Buffalo Sabres - Buffal-oh so close. Poor Buffalo. Their team used to have such promise and now they're treading water. They keep their core but refuse to add the missing pieces that allow them to take that next step. They've finished 10th twice in a row, and they'll be right on the bubble again this year.

8. Montreal Canadiens - The Habs-nots. I haven't met one person here in Montreal yet that's happy with the Canadiens' moves this offseason, and I don't blame them. Rebuilding though free agency doesn't work. Just ask the Rangers. However, they have enough young pieces (and will get a bounce-back year from Price) to make it to late April.

7. NY Rangers - New York Minute. This is Gaborik's projected time in a Rangers uniform before he blows out his groin/knee/vagina. If he doesn't, however, the Rangers will have a stud on their hands. Lundqvist will need to stand tall to get them into the playoffs, while Redden needs to remember how to play professional hockey, perhaps sometime in the next 5 years that are left on his contract.

6. New Jersey Devils - Boring as Hell. The Devils had some promise for excitement with Parise and other young talent, but the addition of Lemaire assures them a playoff berth and a lot of empty seats.

5. Eye of the Staal-m. A bit of a stretch here. Think Boston accent. But the Hurricanes are as good as the face of their franchise takes them. The team has talent and experience, but is it enough to seriously compete, especially with the loss of two puck-moving blueliners in Seidenburg and Babchuk? Staal-my seas ahead, indeed.

4. High Flyers with a Re-Emery-gence. Two for the price of one! Someone's on a roll. Philly is many analysts pick for the Cup, but like Chicago, the issue is in net. They'll be a very good team without 2007 Emery, and a serious Cup contender with him. Either way, they'll finish close to the top of the conference.

3. March of the Penguins. A classic, used at least 15 times by ESPN during their playoff run. They're probably the best team in their conference, if not in the league, but they'll be in tough against Philly and the rest of (most of) their competitive division this year. Also, the Stanley Cup hangover is a real phenomenon. Although, as the Leafs continue to prove, so is the April golf tournament hangover.

2. Washington Capitals - Net Capital Growth. Varlamov so far has been streaky at best (and Theodore is, well, Theodore), and the D may still be too thin for a Cup run but Ovechkin, Backstrom, Green, Semin (79 points in 62 games last year...look out) and the rest will keep this team at the top of the conference.

1. Is something Bruin? They'll be at the top of the Conference thanks to a weak divison and solid team. But Kessel is out and Savard still needs a deal for next year. How far can Thomas flop his way towards a Cup with that kind of offense?

Western Final: Detroit vs. Vancouver. Dark horse: the latest hot pick of analysts everywhere, the Blackhawks could make it if their goaltending holds up.

Eastern Final: Washington vs. Pittsburgh. Somewhere (probably somewhere in Phoenix), Gary Bettman just had a wet dream. If the stars and matchups align, these two teams should be playing each other for the Prince of Wales Trophy. Dark horse: the Flyers. Even with Emery, never count out a team with that much toughness and skill.

The Cup Finals: Vancouver vs. Pittsburgh. The Canucks have the defensive depth, the star goaltending, and a pool of gritty forwards. Their problem? Scoring depth. The Pens have superstars up front, a solid defensive corps, and a goalie who could (should) make the Canadian Olympic team. They also have been there before. Maybe when Hodgson (pronounced Hod-son apparently) or Shirokov develop, the Canucks can make the leap, but for now, the cup remains in Pittsburgh.

Cup Winners: the Pens. Again. Crosby better shake hands this time. Rypien is a lot tougher to fight than, say, Brett McLean. Award winners will come tomorrow or Friday.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Prediction Season is Back!!

Aaand the countdown is on. The Canucks are 5-0-0 in the preseason, which means only one thing: only 1 week until the new Gossip Girl season premiere! Just kidding. Sort of. Also, the NHL season is set to start begin October 1st. A few days after July 1st, once the free agent frenzy had subsided and the post-season depression finally began to kick in, the HCP released its Early, Useless, Unpredictable Predictions for 09-10 season. Now, we're pleased to bring you the Slightly Less Early but No Less Useless Predictions! Starting today, the West, in the form of sometimes slightly dated pop culture references.

15. Phoenix Coyotes - The Star Wars kid. Just sad..so sad. Here's to hoping Hamilton has a bright future. (However, if Phoenix had as many views as this video, they wouldn't be in this mess to begin with. In other news, I am personally responsible for at least half of these views.)

14. Colorado Avalanche - Vincent Chase after Medellin. This team had it all: the money, the fans, the Forsbergs and Sakics. And now its a team destined for the bottom, losing its fans and its financial support and lost the face of the franchise in Sakic. At least its committed to a rebuild. Just beware of Germans.

13. Nashville Predators - Kevin Federline. Totally irrelevent, somehow mildly newsworthy for a while, and we all would be happier if they just disappeared. Their defense got weaker, but still has rocks in Suter and Weber, while their goaltending looks solid too. But that's about it. Their highlight of the last few years: This. (It's Taylor, for those of you who haven't met my future wife.)

12. Los Angeles - Miley Cyrus. Tantalizingly close, but still too freaking young. Maybe next year. I still think they have a little more development before they can take the leap. Many experts are making the Kings their sleeper pick and they could make the leap, but their goaltending and defense is still too weak and young to compete in the West.

11. Oilers - Friendster. Remember when Friendster was cool? (Apparently, it still somehow exists!) Too bad no one would be caught dead on it anymore, right Heatley? The Oilers storied franchise is no longer a place where anyone wants to play or live, and its shown through its lack of ability to attract real talent. Gagner and Cogliano will have better years, but this team isn't deep or skilled enough to compete in the West. And don't even get me started on a 4-year deal for a 36 year old Bulin Wall who had a decent season in a contract year with a blossoming defensive corps.

10. Minnesota Wild - Matthew McConaughey. Untalented, often painful to watch, yet still wildly popular. (Also in consideration: Krusty the Clown) They made some good moves on D, but are ultimately treading water, replacing Gaborik with Gaborik-lite: slightly less injury-prone, slightly less good. This team doesn't need a retooling: it needs a rebuild around Burns and Koivu. By signing Havlat, they secured themselves as a playoff bubble team for years to come. (To find a picture to capture my emotion, I googled "Happiest Man in the World," and found a picture of a man giving himself head. I think I'll move on.)

9. St. Louis Blues - Butters from South Park. Lovable, slightly pathetic, and always finding a way to get the short end of the stick. They got rocked by injuries last year, and still found a way to sneak into the playoffs, where they promptly got sent packing in four games. This year they'll be healthier and a year older, but there isn't enough room for them in the West playoffs.

8. Columbus Blue Jackets - There Will Be Blood. I really didn't like this movie at all, but I watched it for Daniel Day Lewis' performance. This is Nash and the Blue Jackets. The Jackets still have enough to get in - provided Mason doesn't pull a Price - but they don't have much of a shot. However, if you look at their possible first round matchup...

7. Dallas Stars - Righteous Kill. De Niro. Pacino. Together! In a movie! Too bad it sucked. That pretty much summed up the Stars last year: hyped as a Cup contender, and played themselves out of it early. They'll have a bounce back year with a better (surely) Turco and a healthy Richards and Morrow.

6. Calgary Flames - The Girl Next Door. Just kidding Elisha! Seriously though, the top 6 spots in the West are a virtual lock, but ordering them is the hard part. Calgary gets dropped to 6 for one reason: depth. Sure, they have a top line (well, two thirds of one), but who comes after Iggy and Jokinen? Sure, their top 3 may be the best in league, but Sarich is a big drop off. Who's backing up Kipper so he doesn't burn himself out after 76 games? And here's hoping Fleury makes the team.

5. Anaheim Ducks - Mad Men. Apparently it's awesome. Or so I hear. This is the show that I and others always keep meaning to watch, but never do. The Ducks have trouble selling out the Honda Center for playoff games, but have been one of the most entertaining success stories of the past few years. They got dropped to make room for Chicago, but the Ducks have the offense and goaltending to get them far. Their biggest weakness is on the backend, but Scott Neidermayer's continued awesomeness will be enough to hold them together.

4. Chicago Blackhawks - John and Kate plus 8. Turmoil! Cheating! Lots of kids! Maybe I was too harsh on them in my previous rankings. For all their shittiness in Huet, whose latest strategy is trying to disguise himself as Khabibulin, and despite the injury to Hossa, their offense and defense are both absolutely dirty. But won't be enough to overtake the Wings...this year. And no, I didn't take any cheap shots at Patrick Kane. The poor kids already taken enough of a beating. No, wait, that was the cab driver. Hey-oh!

3. Detroit Red Wings - Michael Bay's films. Even though the new Transformer movie drew comparisons to "watching a blender for two hours while somebody shouts at you," it still became one of the highest grossing movies of all time. And so it is with the Wings: no matter the players, the coaches or the low expectations, they always will find a way to win. However, unlike Bay's films, the Wings are both talented and watchable. Even with the loss of key pieces in Hossa, Hudler and depth in Kopecky and Chelios (seen here in a file photo), the Wings still have a lineup to compete for top spot in the West. So why are they third? Their division. With 6 games against Chicago, along with tough competition in St. Louis and Columbus, the Wings will still have enough to come out on top, but not enough to overtake the next team. You know what's coming.

2. Vancouver Canucks - The Land of Chocolate. They're just plain awesome. And no, it's not a homer pick (okay, maybe a little). But the Canucks' shoddy divisional rivals will allow them to overtake the Wings for second in the Conference. Also, they are awesome. Life is good. Can I get a Gillis for President chant anyone? This team finally seems like it has the right mix to make something happen. Not since 30 seconds before this moment have I been so excited. 

1. San Jose - Phil Mickelson at the US Open. While it might be a stretch to use a sports reference for a sports reference, come on! Hit to the back of the freaking green already!! Getting Heatley for a 12-goal scorer in Cheechoo (playing with Thornton or Marleau no less) and a streaky Czech should assure that the Sharks again take down the conference. The playoffs? Good luck with that, Thornton.

Coming later this week: the picks of the East, Cup, and awards. ONE MORE WEEK BABY!!