Thursday, October 29, 2009

Thoughts A Month In..Fluke or For Real?

Well, my awards predictions never really materialized, which saved me from the embarrasment of praising Hodgson (sent to juniors) and Filatov (1 goal in 8 games) as the Calder frontrunners. Pierre LeBrun was not so lucky, and actually changed his prediction of Hodgson a week or so into the season (it now reads van Riemsdyk...I wonder if Hradek is thinking of changing his Calder pick too.) Now, however, we're a month in, and my preseason predictions are already jumbled. Last year it took a few months to figure out if Boston was for real, so leave it to the HCP to sort things out and see if these standings surprises are flukes or for real.

Colorado: 1st in the West, 1st in the league. Two teams in the league now stand at 10 wins. Pittsburgh was no stretch, but the Avs? A team that was likely ranked no higher than 13th on most preseason predictions? This team is now 5 points clear of number 2 in the conference, and owes its success to two things: health and goaltending. A healthy Stastny has given the Avs top line some offensive pop, while Craig Anderson has been out of this world. I loved the signing over the summer, but no one could have predicted it would be this successful so far. Their rookies O'Reilly and Duchene have looked great, and Quincy has been valuable after the Smyth trade, with 8 points and a +6 thus far. Will they end up finishing on top of the West? No. But if the team stays healthy and continue to get solid goaltending, the Avs can do what no analyst could have predicted: compete for a low playoff spot.
Call: FOR REAL

Los Angeles: 2nd in the West. You don't have to look too far down past the Avs to find the Kings. Their young stars are blossoming and Kopitar, who the Canucks should have taken in 2005, is a top 5 goal scorer. I still think Quick isn't good enough to keep this team on top, but they'll stay competitive and be in the playoff picture all year.
Call: FOR REAL

Phoenix: 7th in the West. The team everyone thought would be playing shinny with the Avs by December is right up there. Firing Wayne Gretzky and hiring Dave Tippet was an excellent move, if classlessly excecuted. But relying on an aging Jovocop and Aucoin to be in their top 3 scorers and lead the team to the playoffs isn't likely
Call: FLUKE

Detroit: 12th in the West. It's Detroit. They can't rely on Osgood to waltz into a division championship anymore, but they'll be top 5 by the end of the year. Also, they've had to play the powerhouse Avs twice already.
Call: FLUKE

Canucks: 10th in the West. They've looked better after a slow start, and Lou was starting to round into shape before he cracked his ribs against the Leafs (no, not from laughing his way to the Leafs' 8th straigh Getzlaf t loss). Hopefully his injury, as well as the other half of the forward core, will heal up and this team will get back on track.
Call: FLUKE

Anaheim: 14th in the West. I refuse to believe this team is not a playoff contender. Their goaltending has been awful; Hiller and Giguere are much better than this. Hopefully, for the Ducks as well as Team Canada, that sports hernia surgery he had over the summer hasn't gone wrong.
Call: FLUKE

Ottawa: 6th in the East. Mike Fisher at a point per game? Volchenckov has gone down with an injury, and Kovalev has done little else but stand around and take shots on the power play. Chris Phillips has more points than Cheechoo. Don't get your hopes up.
Call: FLUKE

Buffalo: 3rd in the East. Miller is red hot, and Myers looks like a stud (these are endearing hockey terms, no need for further interpretation). And Vanek hasn't even turned it on yet. But can Connolly stay healthy? Can a team with only a couple recognizable names beat out the Bruins once they get healthy?
Call: FLUKE

Toronto: 15th in the East. Saving the best for last. Watching the Laffs drop 8 straight as a Canadian hockey fan outside of the GTA is very satisfying indeed. But the team is still getting used to each other, and the Monster has the potential for at least solid goaltending. I still don't agree with the Kessel trade, but the Leafs won't finish last with him in the lineup. And even if they do, they lose a top 5 pick for a 21 year old who already has a 36 goal season under his belt. If they finish last the year after that, however...
Call: As much as I hate to say it, the Leafs are better than this. FLUKE

And remember, its only 10 games in. As James Duthie says, do try and avoid premature evaluation. It can be very embarrassing.