The HCP's Breakdown of the Kovalchuk Rumors

zzOMG!! Kovalchuk to Vancouverzzz! The internets are going crazy these days with rumors about Kovalchuk demanding a max (10 year, 11.5 mil) deal from the ATL, and the Thrashers, not exactly rolling in money these days, turning it down. Before we all get our panties in a twist, lets not forget every single sports rumor site floods their boards with rumors about Canadian teams to boost their readers. Gionta has been on the verge of donning the stick-in-rink for at least two years, as every big name is linked to the Habs, Leafs, or Canucks. However, the Kovalchuk rumors, while possibly made up, do make a lot of sense. The two other rumored teams are the Kings and Wings; the Kings are unlikely to part with young, cheap talent and mess with a chemistry that's put them on top of the league, and the Wings aren't the type to go after big-name rental players at the deadline. So why does the deal make sense for the Canucks? Here's the rumored deal:

Canucks get: Kovalchuk

Thrashers get: Demitra, Schneider (the young one, some say a d-man instead), Grabner, and a 1st

For Gillis, I'm sure this deal would hinge on a sign-and-trade, since Gillis has a hardon for young talent and draft picks. However, with the signing of the Sedins and Luongo, the Canucks essentially have a 5-year window for the Cup. If Gillis can add big name talent right away, instead of waiting for young players and picks to develop, he'll do it. Sedin-Sedin-Burrows and Raymond-Kesler-Kovalchuk. Bitch please.

For Waddell, who's made some, er, questionable trades in the past (see 10, 9, and then go have a satisfied look at 1 for a bit), the deal makes sense for him, picking up a talented second liner in Grabner, a 1st, the best goalie in the A. Perhaps most importantly, it gets him Demitra, since the Thrashers NEED to make the playoffs this year (see: link in the the second sentence). Win now, win later is a win-win, especially if his back is against the wall and risking losing the 'Chuk for nothing, which will most certainly get him fired. (Don't worry Thrashers fan, he'll probably get fired either way.) The only thing stopping him is another team stepping up with a better deal, which could easily happen but if this is on his plate at the deadline he can be satisfied in taking it.

The only other variable is the salary cap. Assuming it stays around its current level (it's supposed to change by 2.5 million, but it's not clear if that's up or down), Gillis would have to unload some salary. If the Thrashers don't bite on Young Schneider (seeing as how they have Pavelec and Lehtonen), I wouldn't be surprised if Gillis tosses a guy like Bieksa into the deal, provided we get a serviceable (say, Christoph Schubert) d-man back. Assuming Wellfed (this picture, occupying the top 5 spots on the Google image search for Wellwood, will never get old) is gone, and Kesler gets his raise to about 4.5 mil, with the loss of Demitra, Old Man Schneider, and Bieksa that'll clear about 9 million give or take for Kovalchuk. Mitchell is coming off the books at 3.5 as well, and as much as we need him back, it'll give Gillis a bit of breathing room to work with. And come on, Gillis owns the cap. He's found more nooks and crannies than Tiger Woods (come on...I had to get one in).

So, Kovalchuk and Schubert to the Canucks? Demitra, Bieksa, Grabner, and a 1st back? Get 'er done.

Bonus: A week and a half before the Team Canada roster is announced, here's the HCP's picks:

nash-crosby-iginla
heatley-thornton-marleau
smyth-getzlaf-perry
morrow-mike richards-doan
toews

seabrook-keith
niedermayer-weber
boyle-pronger
regehr

brodeur
lou
fleury
alternates: savard, lecavalier, doughty