Saturday, December 26, 2009

Merry Christmas, Dallas

Volumes of work, probably eclipsing the works of Shakespeare, have been written about the NHL "loser point" and its impact on the standings. Therefore, I don't expect to add much to the debate, but as a fan of the only team in the NHL without an overtime or shootout loss (and one that's currently out of a playoff spot), I'm curious to see how the year would be if the NHL tabulated its points totals differently. I'll look at three scenarios: the current system (2 points for a win, 1 point for an OT/SO loss, 0 for a regulation loss), a win or lose system (2 points for a win, 0 for a loss), and another proposed system (3 points per regulation win, 2 for an OT/SO win, 1 for an OT/SO loss, and 0 for a regulation loss. Let's check a breakdown:

Current system: (with OTL in brackets)
East:
1. New Jersey - 53 pts (1)
2. Washington - 52 pts (6)
3. Buffalo - 47 pts (3)
4. Pittsburgh - 53 pts (1)
5. Boston - 43 pts (7)
6. Atlanta - 40 pts (4)
7. Ottawa - 40 pts (4)
8. NY Rangers - 39 pts (3)
9. Montreal - 39 pts (3)
10. Florida - 39 pts (7)
11. Tampa Bay - 35 pts (9)
12. NY Islanders - 35 pts (7)
13. Philly - 34 pts (2)
14. Toronto - 34 pts (8)
15. Carolina - 24 pts (6)

West:
1. Chicago - 51 pts (3)
2. San Jose - 51 pts (7)
3. Colorado - 48 pts (6)
4. Phoenix (wtf?) - 48 pts (2)
5. LA - 47 pts (3)
6. Nashville - 47 pts (3)
7. Calgary - 45 pts (5)
8. Dallas - 43 pts (11)
9. Vancouver - 42 pts (0)
10. Detroit - 41 pts (5)
11. St. Louis - 39 pts (5)
12. Minnesota - 39 pts (3)
13. Anaheim - 37 pts (7)
14. Columbus - 35 pts (7)
15. Edmonton - 34 pts (4)

Now, with just wins as a measure (ties go to those with less games played, 2nd tiebreaker is more losses is OT):

1. New Jersey - 52 pts
2. Washington - 46 pts
3. Buffalo - 44 pts
4. Pittsburgh - 52 pts
5. Boston - 36 pts
6. Atlanta - 36 pts
7. Ottawa - 36 pts
8. NY Rangers - 36 pts
9. Montreal - 36 pts
10. Philly - 32 pts
11. Florida - 32 pts
12. NY Islanders - 28 pts
13. Tampa Bay - 26 pts
14. Toronto - 26 pts
15. Carolina - 18 pts (yikes)

West:
1. Chicago - 48 pts
2. Phoenix (double wtf) - 46 pts
3. Vancouver - 44 pts
4. San Jose - 44 pts
5. LA - 44 pts
6. Nashville - 44 pts
7. Colorado - 42 pts
8. Calgary - 40 pts
9. Detroit - 36 pts
10. Minnesota - 36 pts
11. St. Louis - 34 pts
12. Dallas - 32 pts
13. Anaheim - 30 pts
14. Edmonton - 30 pts
15. Columbus - 28 pts

Now, time to dust off the muliplication tables and figure out the last format:

1. New Jersey - 79 pts
2. Washington - 75 pts
3. Buffalo - 69 pts
4. Pittsburgh - 79 pts
5. Boston - 61 pts
6. Atlanta - 58 pts
7. Ottawa - 58 pts
8. NY Rangers - 57 pts
9. Montreal - 57 pts
10. Florida - 55 pts
11. Philly - 50 pts
12. NY Islanders - 49 pts
13. Tampa Bay - 48 pts
14. Toronto - 47 pts
15. Carolina - 35 pts

West:
1. Chicago - 75 pts
2. Phoenix - 71 pts
3. Colorado - 69 pts
4. San Jose - 73 pts
5. LA - 69 pts
6. Nashville - 69 pts
7. Calgary - 65 pts
8. Vancouver - 63 pts
9. Detroit - 59 pts
10. Dallas - 59 pts
11. Minnesota - 57 pts
12. St. Louis - 56 pts
13. Anaheim - 52 pts
14. Edmonton - 49 pts
15. Columbus - 49 pts

So what do we find? In terms of difference between measurements 2 and 3, not a whole lot. Vancouver dropped 5 spots, and Dallas rose 3, but other than that no other team moved more than one spot. I don't have the fancy math degree required to measure parity between these two systems, but the parity in the current system and system 3 are massive, where 5 wins separates 3rd and 12th in the West in system 1, and 4.3 wins seperates 3rd and 12th in system 3. Even though the standings in all three systems are relatively similar, with the exceptions of teams that, you know, win (Vancouver) and teams that lose closely (Dallas).

System 3 would be a tough system to put in place, considering that standings would need four columns of statistics (W, OTW, RL, L), bringing us back to the dreaded days of 2003 (W, L, T, OTL). The simplest system that would appeal to the "casual" fan that Bettman has such an erection for would be, of course, system 2, where the NHL could revert to the winning percentage system that all three other major sports use. Personally, this system makes the most sense to this writer. A win is a win, and a loss is a loss. Parity is good, but this is created by an effective cap system. Artificially created parity, like the results of the current system, are good for Stars season ticket holders but bad for the game. When only 7 or 8 teams in the league have "losing records," it's time for a change.

But in the meantime, Merry Christmas to our faithful readers. And Merry Christmas, Dallas Stars.

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