Hype Kills

I was checking out this sick t-shirt at the freshnes, and the catchphrase got me thinking a bit.

Stories about early picks trying to live up to the hype and failing - being crushed by the weight of public expectation - are widely-known. But is this phenomenon for real?

The main problem I have with this idea is that high picks are given all the chances and opportunities in the world to prove themselves. Once a player has been made a #1, #2 or even #3 pick, minutes are basically guaranteed. For these star prospects to lose their place with the team that drafted them they must show an incredible level of incompetency, since anything short of that will be taken as potential for improvement and the player will be retained. Still, even if a top draft pick is released/not re-signed/traded by their original team, if they show ANYTHING at all that resembles a basketball skill, there are going to be teams that are ready to employ them.

The reasoning behind all the chances these players get is closely tied to the NBA's obsession with upside. Probably the main reason GM's keep employing Darko and Kwame is because they see these players as half-grown saplings of potential. They see the player/sapling standing in front of them but looming overhead, GM's can see the mile-high mountain of potential/a towering pine tree (this metaphor was always doomed for failure) that scouts and bloggers like us have painted for him.

So really, don't feel too bad for the pressure these top picks have to endure, since it means that they're guaranteed a place in the NBA for many years at the expense of other, more talented players who's skills weren't appraised as highly on draft day.

Next topic for discussion - why NBA players that were highly hyped in high school/college get touted as stars when they're still awful (rookie KD was a good example, but the one that really bugs the shit out of me is Derrick Rose and how people keep writing, "John Wall could be a Derrick Rose-like PG! WOW! AWESOME!" Not.)